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Est 310 2 3 08

Figure 1 below is adapted from one by Nordyke which appears in [Teller et alp. The graph plots cratering results for basalt and has been altered by adding data points for an additional Plowshare cratering shot Palanquinand also the positions for Pokhran-I scaled for 8 and 13 kt.

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In addition the data point for Sulky has been replotted. The original data point gives it a "zero radius". The thinking for plotting it this way was no doubt that since it wasn't defined as a crater, it couldn't have a "crater radius".

However it did produce a surface rupture of considerable size, which missed being a depression simply due to the upper strata's failure to recompact. If the graph Est 310 2 3 08 considered a plot of surface rupture features of all types, then Sulky should be plotted at the position labelled "actual".

Note also, the original diagram placed Sulky slightly too high on the depth scale. Click here to see x version 20 k Figure 1. Scaled Depth vs Radius for Cratering Shots.


It can be seen in Figure 1 that Sulky and Palanquin occupy almost the same spot on the graph, with Sulky being located slightly farther from the crater vs radius curve.

In looking for reasons that two shots with almost identical scaled characteristics produced quite different surface effects it should be noted that they are falling on opposite sides of the point of containment, but just barely.

Sulky was fired in a notably strong rock - granite - which would be expected to cause rather better containment than basalt. The rhyolite used for Palanquin is a strong hard rock it has the same chemical composition as granite but with a finer crystal structureprobably stronger than basalt but not quite as strong as granite.

Thus both shots should be expected to fall slightly below the scaled radius curve for basalt i. Also the fact that Palanquin produced a throw-out crater while Sulky did not, even if it was slightly deeper, is explicable given the stronger rock used with Sulky.

The scaled depth difference between Sulky and Palanquin 1. But the fact that these two shots - with a fold yield difference - tightly bracket the threshold conditions for containment places tight constraints on the plausible yield for Pokhran-I. It can be seen that with an 8 kt yield Pokhran-I clusters closely with Sulky and Palanquin.

Pokhran-I was slightly deeper than Palanquin and was barely contained, suggesting that the rock in which it was fired was roughly similar in strength to the rhyolite of Palanquin.

On the other hand the claim of 13 kt puts Pokhran-I in a strikingly anomalous position. It is much farther below the curve than any over the other shots, and at a much shallower scaled depth than the evident cutoff region for containment. In effect this requires Pokhran-I to have been fired in rock with remarkable properties - offering far better containment than basalt, rhyolite, or granite.

The actual test site rock sandstone and shale was soft, porous and moisture bearing - quite significantly weaker than the granite strata in which Sulky was emplaced.

Chidambaram asserts that rock mechanics calculations employing measurements of the physical properties of the Pokhran rocks support the 13 kt yield for Pokhran-I [Sikka et al ]. With due respect to Chidambaram, in light of the scaling data presented here this is an extraordinary claim, and is impossible to credit.

From this analysis, it appears that the yield of Pokhran-I has been tightly constrained to value close to 8 kt, in accordance with recent statements made by PK Iyengar. It has been reported [Chengappa ; p. Since Chadambaram presumably consulted the Plowshare test results Palanquin was conducted 14 Aprilhe would have been aware that a shot that scaled to Palanquin would be very unlikely to be contained.

Thus if Chidambaram really planned complete, or nearly complete containment, a planned yield would have had to have be no more than 9 kt, and very likely less. The 8 kt yield range suggested by comparison with US cratering data is well within the range that seismic scaling laws provide - which extends from 3.

It is significantly higher than estimates favored by seismologists for Pokhran, and the reported estimates of U. As with Pokhran-I, these yield claims have been controversial from the start. Three approaches exist for estimating yield from the seismic data: Direct seismic yield estimation - calculating the yield directly from the Pokhran-II seismic signal strength; Comparative seismic yield estimation - comparing the seismic magnitude estimates for Pokhran-II to similar estimates for Pokhran-I, and using independent yield data for P-I to calculate P-II; and Comparative signal estimation - directly comparing the signal strength for Pokhran-I and II, without attempting intervening magnitude or yield estimation, and using independent yield data for P-I to calculate P-II.

These include coupling of the explosion to the medium surrounding it, local signal propagation in the test area, and long distance signal propagation to the measuring site.The front view of Monticello, Thomas Jefferson's plantation home, near Charlottesville, Virginia.

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